Post-Match Expectation (xG)
The xG data for this site is sourced from understat.com. xGoals and xAssists data is compiled from understat and a quality multiplier is applied to adjust the data slightly based on the tendency of stronger teams to outperform xG. xCleanSheet probability is determined for each player while he was on the pitch from the xGoals data. Own goals are removed as they are deemed to be random events & penalties are adjusted for the risk of being missed/saved/scored.

Yellow and Red Cards are not adjusted. A background xAssists probability is added to reflect the possibility of an innocuos FPL assist that is not considered an assist by other systems. Bonus points are determined following a probabilistic simulation influenced by the xG data and historic analysis of the BPS system. The end result is an expected points total based on situation each player found himself in during the match. This is a very strong performance indicator.

Pre-Match Expectation (Odds)
The bookmaker odds for each GW are used in this tool with margins removed for Clean Sheets, Player Goals and Team Goals. Projected Assists are deduced from historic xG data for each player and the bookmakers predicted scorelines for each match.

Bookings, Red Cards, Own Goals and Saves are also forecast on a player specific basis. Bonus points are determined following a probabilistic simulation influenced by the bookmaker data, xG data and historic analysis of the BPS system. All of these factors are adjusted for the time each player spent on the pitch to reflect a fair expectation of the points they could earn in the GW.

1. Enter the Team Code you wish to investigate prior to hitting the submit button.
2. Review the results. A higher points expectation than actual score indicates over-performance/luck.