Forecast FPL Performance Based on Implied Odds

Tool Methodology Methodology

Phase One: Next GW Forecast
Spread odds markets are used for projecting player goals, team goals & clean sheets when available- when spread odds are yet to be released a learning mechanism is applied. Bookmaker odds are used to predict yellow and red cards. Projected Assists are deduced from historic xG data for each player (adjusted to reflect FPL assists) and the predicted scorelines for each match.

Own Goals and Saves are also forecast on a player specific basis. Bonus points are determined following a probabilistic simulation influenced by the bookmaker data, xG data and historic analysis of the BPS system.

Phase Two: Forecasting Beyond the Next GW
Phase Two is the key to the FPL Review algorithm. The latest bookmaker & spread odds are collected and added to the background database, the algorithm learns from this data and remaps it's model. With the brain behind the FPL Review algorithm refreshed forecasts for future GWs can be made as per Phase One- effectively it's like having odds data available months in advance!

How to Use this Tool How to Use this Tool
  1. Enter the Team Code you wish to investigate and the amount of GWs to forecast prior to hitting the submit button.
  2. Click on any players picture/name to view his profile and detailed xG & Odds data from his season.
  3. If required adjust the minutes a player is expected to get based on the latest news.
  4. Detailed xMins changes can be made on the players profile. In the general view changes are made in bulk with FPL flags still applied.
  5. Switch the model between raw bookies odds and xG based models as you wish.
  6. Test out the Transfer Suggestor optimisation toolkit.
  7. Search for players and make transfers to optimise team selection.

Input the amount of gameweeks to forecast
Input Team Code, this can be found on your gameweek history page in the URL. e.g. https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/%5BTeam_Code%5D/history