Forecast Performance Based on Bookmaker Odds for up the Next 8 GWs: Predicts Bookmakers with an Accuracy of 95.8% over 5 GWs

Tool Methodology Methodology

Phase One: Next GW Forecast
The latest bookmaker odds are used in this tool with margins removed for Clean Sheets, Player Goals and Team Goals. Projected Assists are deduced from historic xG data for each player and the bookmakers predicted scorelines for each match.

Bookings, Red Cards, Own Goals and Saves are also forecast on a player specific basis. Bonus points are determined following a probabilistic simulation influenced by the bookmaker data, xG data and historic analysis of the BPS system.

Phase Two: Forecasting Beyond the Next GW
Phase Two is the key to the FPL Review algorithm. The latest bookmaker odds are collected and added to the background database, the algorithm learns from this data and remaps it's model. With the brain behind the FPL Review algorithm refreshed forecasts for future GWs can be made as per Phase One.

Accuracy
Please check out this in depth review of the FPL Review forecasting algorithm and this analysis of how effective bookmaker odds are in FPL.

How to Use this Tool How to Use this Tool
  1. Enter the Team Code you wish to investigate and the amount of GWs to forecast prior to hitting the submit button.
  2. Click on any players name to view his profile and detailed data from his season.
  3. If required adjust the minutes a player is expected to get. Click on the Autosub Simulation button for a full forecast including averaged substitutions.
  4. Switch the model between raw bookies odds and xG based models as you wish.
  5. Search for players and make transfers to optimise team selection.

Input the amount of gameweeks to forecast
Input Team Code, this can be found on your gameweek history page in the URL. e.g. https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/[Team_Code]/history


Forecast Points Projection Summary
Total
XI Score 0.00
AutoSub Score 0.00
Team Value
Squad Validity
Transfers
Chip Usage
Select initial Free Transfers avilable

100% Odds

Mixed

xG Model

Bookmakers Forecast
A future GW can be selected when a valid squad has been selected. If this dropdown is frozen it indicates that there is a problem with your squad selection


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Display Detailed Gameweek Data

numpos Pos Name Cost Ave xMin Team Total xPts Value Info Free Hit GW Buy GW Sell
xG:O Total This is the ratio of expected points based on xG data against expected points based on Bookmakers Odds data for the whole season. This can help indicate bookmaker/market bias
xG:O Form This is the ratio of expected points based on xG data against expected points based on Bookmakers Odds data over the past 8 GWs, weighted based on recency. This is a good indicator of form
FGraph BGraph UGraph fplid Add