Forecast FPL Performance Based on Implied Odds for up the Next 8 GWs
Phase One: Next GW Forecast
The latest bookmaker odds are used in this tool with margins removed for Clean Sheets, Player Goals and Team Goals. Projected Assists are deduced from historic xG data for each player (adjusted to reflect FPL assists) and the bookmakers predicted scorelines for each match.
Bookings, Red Cards, Own Goals and Saves are also forecast on a player specific basis. Bonus points are determined following a probabilistic simulation influenced by the bookmaker data, xG data and historic analysis of the BPS system.
Phase Two: Forecasting Beyond the Next GW
Phase Two is the key to the FPL Review algorithm. The latest bookmaker odds are collected and added to the background database, the algorithm learns from this data and remaps it's model. With the brain behind the FPL Review algorithm refreshed forecasts for future GWs can be made as per Phase One- effectively it's like having bookmaker odds available months in advance.
- Enter the Team Code you wish to investigate and the amount of GWs to forecast prior to hitting the submit button.
- Click on any players picture/name to view his profile and detailed xG & Odds data from his season.
- If required adjust the minutes a player is expected to get based on the latest news (xMins are estimates for medium/long term play-time).
- Switch the model between raw bookies odds and xG based models as you wish.
- Search for players and make transfers to optimise team selection.