In this article I’m going to run through the FPL Review Implied Odds algorithms projections for GW8 and beyond. I am applying my own expected playtime beliefs and you can do so too using the Team Planner tool.
GW8 Captain Picks
Aubameyang and Sterling are the two clear captain choices of GW8 and it’s no surprise this is reflected in captain polls on other sites.
Aubameyang has an implied probability of 56.6% to score against Bournemouth if he’s fielded for 90 minutes. This is only second to Aguero this GW, however as Aguero often gets his minutes managed and was heavily involved on Tuesday it’s fair to say Auba can be considered the actual most likely goalscorer with play-time in mind.
Sterling appears to be just as good a pick as Auba and while Pep has shown anyone can be rested there appears to be some confidence he’ll be starting this weekend.
Salah, Aguero, Pukki, Kane and Mane are legitimate alternatives. Indeed Aguero could compete with Sterling/Aubameyang as the top pick should you have greater confidence on his play-time and he has been electric so far this season.
GW8 Top Defensive Projections
Ederson is out and beyond the other GKs in terms of the projections this weekend. Adrian may be finishing up his time in these summaries with Alisson due back potentially after the international break, also worth noting is Fabianskis long-term injury Roberto, who could prove value at £4.4M.
Once more Trent Alexander-Arnold is the top projected defender, with teammates Robertson and van Dijk in 2nd and 4th. They are likely in for a tougher spell from GW9-12 so we may get a break from them leading the table every week. Otamendi, Manchester United and Everton DFs all look strong picks too.
GW8 Top Attacking Projections
Salah and Sterling lead the GWs midfield projections as usual. Son, Mane and Pepe are the next best midfielders with PL newcomers Mount and James continuing to look exceptional value.
Up front Kane, Aguero, Auba & Pukki are the highest projected FWs this GW. Abraham, Haller and Barnes are also worth noting for their value.
GW8-15 Optimised £100M Selection
Boly, Soyuncu & Lundstram appear to be a very solid and cheap defensive base with Otamendi & Maguire the more premium options (does 5.5M count?). With Liverpools difficult upcoming run the algorithm is not as bullish about their defensive assets. Schmeichel in goals is a symptom of what looks like quite a nice run for Leicester after the Liverpool game.
Mahrez is a gamble in midfield after a great start he may be coming into more minutes too depending on the Bilva ban decision which I have assumed will be upheld by the FA. I may have been too positive with his minutes (I’m guessing 60)- so bear that in mind, maybe a Manchester City fan or Pep psychologist will be able to give a better estimate on this.
Sterling and Salah remain in the long-term optimisation as they have done all season. James still looks fantastic value and has been exciting for Manchester United.
Pukki, Abraham and Haller were the front-trio recommended last GW for the long term and that remains the case- the algo is suggesting ~15.37 goal/assist involvements from the 3 of them over the next 8 GWs.
GW8 £100M Team of the Week
A 3-4-3 this GW with Adrian in nets for what may be his last start of the season. Otamendi, Digne & Maguire have a projection of 1.15ioCS between the 3 of them, all with relatively favourable fixtures for a chance of a CS.
Sterling is an obvious pick with Mahrez potentially proving good value and Pepe & James making up the remaining midfield starting slots. Auba, Pukki & Haller are 3 of the top 5 projections for FWs this GW and with 1.77 ioG & 0.88A from the 3 of them projected using my minute own inputs.