A crazy start to the season has left many veteran managers questioning their decisions- though with 33GWs there is plenty of time to make amends. In this article I’m going to run through the FPL Review Implied Odds algorithms projections for GW6 and beyond. I am applying my own expected playtime beliefs and you can do so too using the Team Planner tool.
GW6 Captain Picks
This GW there are 3 clear and obvious picks according to the odds data.
Raheem Sterling is the highest projected player of the weekend by quite an amount even factoring for the slight increased risk that he could be rested (unlikely). The odds imply that he’s on for 0.84ioG/90 against Watford and Manchester City have a 50% shot a clean sheet. Serious numbers for the midfielder.
Next in line is Sergio Aguero who has been on fire this season. He has the highest goal expectancy of the week 0.96ioG/90 and is a very popular choice based on polls. Not far behind him is Aubameyang who is on for 0.81ioG/90 against Aston Villa and could be a fun differential pick with Manchester City likely collecting most of the GW6 armbands.
GW6 Top Defensive Projections
Ederson is the top projected keeper as Manchester City, facing Watford, have the highest chance of a clean sheet this GW according to the markets- despite last weeks calamity. Pickford is the second best projected keeper of the GW at home against newly promoted Sheffield United- though is poor long-term value. Ryan, Pope and Gunn are the value picks this week.
It’s a good week to own an Everton defender and in particular Digne- rotation unlikely and a match against a promoted team. Manchester City join them to complete the top 7 projections of the week- they have the more favourable clean sheet expectation but there is less certainty about their backline (other than Otamendi for the next few weeks). Zinchenkos spell as a nailed starter may come to an end with Mendy making a sub-appearance mid-week.
GW6 Top Attacking Projections
Sterling is the standout pick of the week and while it’s not a GW to captain Salah he is always likely to get returns. Pepe could show the Premier League what he can do against Aston Villa and could be a very exciting pick.
Upfront Aguero leads the way in terms of projections with Aubameyang the only player coming close. Ashley Barnes is looking tremendous value against a paper-thin Norwich defence as is his strike partner Wood. Popular FWs Haller and Pukki are other non-premium picks for this GW.
GW6-13 Optimised £100M Selection
A few changes from last weeks optimised wildcard selection-Hanley & Boly enter the squad for the injured John Stones and Van Dijk who has some seriously difficult upcoming fixtures.
The only change in midfield is Dendoncker making way for Kayal (or any $4.4M MD really) to enable the upgrade of Nketiah to Jimenez. This could quite easily be Abraham instead of Jimenez depending on your own long-term playtime confidence in each player.
Overall the squad is quite balanced and would likely vary between 4-4-2/4-3-3/3-4-3 depending on fixtures. One interesting aspect is Salah holding his place- this is likely because this a static squad, selling him prior to the difficult fixtures and rebuying afterwards is a valid strategy.
GW6 £100M Team of the Week
A rare GW where Newcastle players make the Team of the Week- though all as bench players.
Leno has a 37% chance of a clean sheet according to the odds and looks good at £5M. Everton fullbacks Coleman and Digne make up the core of the defence with Zinchenko potentially eeking out the last of the rermaining value he has to offer.
Sterling, Pepe and Sigurdsson are the exiting midfield picks and while McNeil experienced a sizable price increase he is looking a decent choice for this GW in isolation. Upfront the belief is that there are goals to found in the trio of Aubameyang, Barnes and Pukki. Let’s see how it works out!
If you wish to test out the algorithm visit the Team Planner and adjust playtime as you see fit!