After the international break we are finally back to preparing our FPL teams. In this article I’m going to run through the Implied Odds algorithms projections for GW5 and beyond. I am applying my own expected playtime beliefs and you can do so too using the FPL Review Team Planner tool.

GW5 Captain Picks

Salah & Sterling are the front runners for the GW5 armband

Another GW and another choice between Salah and Sterling as captain. With the same expected play-time there is almost nothing between the two- I have adjusted the settings based on my own play-time expectations and that gives Salah a slight edge, but it’s easy to understand why someone would pick Sterling if they have greater trust in Pep.

There are a few other notable and potentially exciting choices. Kane, Aguero & Mane all have really strong projections and even ginger wonder Kevin de Bruyne could be a good pick this GW. Anybody beyond Salah/Sterling is definitely going to be a differential this GW- not that I recommend making differential captain picks.

8GW projections for the algos top 10 GW5 choices

GW5 Top Defensive Projections

8GW Projections for GW5s Top 10 GKs
8GW Projections for GW5s Top 10 DFs

Adrian is the highest projected GK this GW but is a very short term option and a gamble until we know when Alisson will return. Lloris and Ederson are more nailed premium options expected to get good returns and Ryan is the value choice of the GW.

Liverpool have the strong defensive projections of the bunch this GW, with the usual trio of VVD, TAA & Robbo scoring highly. Tottenham, Man City, Man Utd, Brighton and Sheffield United all are expected to have a good chance of a clean sheet too with their nailed defenders highly recommended.

GW5 Top Attacking Projections

8GW Projections for GW5s Top 10 MDs
8GW Projections for GW5s Top 10 FWs

Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham look set to have the star attackers of the GW: Sterling, Salah, Mane, de Bruyne, Son, B. Silva, D. Silva, Aguero, Kane & Firmino all are highly projected- though that is not really surprising.

Outside of these 3 teams Haller and Jimenez look like they could have good GWs. Pepe is also emerging as an exciting prospect and may well go on to justify his £9.5M pricetag that many have balked at. Sigurdsson has actually been performing pretty well and his underlying data is positive though the FPL markets have reacted negatively as they are sensitive to FPL returns.

GW5-12 Optimised £100M Selection

Longterm Optimised Squad

The longterm optimised squad provides a strong core to build off. It might make sense to adjust it with a few short term moves. This is based on my own adjustments to the expected playtime- I suggest you do the same when using the FPL Review Team Planner tool. .

Defensively Otamendi and Stones benefit from Laportes absence and long-term it’s hard to keep Zinchenko in the conversation with Mendy returning. Digne, Maguire and VVD are all strong nailed picks at good defensive sides.

Sterling and Salah still appear to be the best players in the game this season and it’s hard to go without them. Despite Short term concerns about Martial he appears in the optimisation due to his longer term value- his team-mate James also appears a high potential punt. Dendoncker still looks a good 5th midfielder choice.

Up front popular choices Pukki & Haller close out what is quite a strong XVI, with Nketiah just making up the numbers.

GW5 £100M Team of the Week

GW5 Optimised Squad

A defence built from favourable clean sheet odds for GW5 for Liverpool, Manchester City, Sheffield United & Brighton. This may be one of Zinchenkos last weeks in these lists with the return of Mendy.

The midfield has the two star players and 3 good punts for the weekend- D. Silva, McGinn and James. James appears to be an exciting signing for Manchester United.

Kane and Wesley lead the line for the GW, Tottenham face a weak Palace side while Villa are at home against West Ham.

Development Corner

There have been a few developments to the site over the International Break.

  • Detailed minute adjustments can be made. For example if you think TAA will be nailed for easy matches but has a risk of being rotated with Gomez in tricky matches it can now be reflected in the algo. Simply click into the players profile to make detailed changes- you will notice I have done this for Sterling and others above.
  • The site now also updates automatically overnight. This means fresher odds & availability data. Previously this data was updated manually twice a week, so this is a big step forward and allows time to be invested in other elements of the site.
  • The ability to save and import expected playtime inputs is being considered- this would be a huge time-saver. There could even be a community wide model that can be loaded