The FPL Review Team Planner tool has been overhauled allowing for much more effective transfer planning and instant meaningful information.

Firstly what does the Team Planner tool do exactly?

  • Uses bookmaker odds to forecast player FPL performance
  • Historic xG data and a bespoke script is used for assists & bonus points
  • Any FPL team can be loaded up and analysed

In short it provides a very strong benchmark for how well a player and team will do in FPL. However functionality for the tool to estimate minutes, allow for chip usage, timed transfers and the inclusion of AutoSubs has just been added.

The Upgrades

First Estimation of Minutes:

This upgrade was in huge demand as inputting expected minutes per player can be very time consuming. This system analyses the past 8 matches a player was available for and determines a fair average expectation for the next ~5GWs. This is not a simple average of the last 8 games- a model that has been built from extensive analysis generates the final prediction.

However it should be noted that the model is not yet capable of learning from recent news (though it will recognise when a player is injured/suspended). For example when Llorente became an option as Kane was out it would take the model ~2 to 3 matches to undertstand.

Factoring in Autosubs + Play-time Models

Example forecast including AutoSubs

With minutes on the pitch now forecast the tool also understands that typically keepers & defenders rarely come off the bench. For example while Martial may average ~60 minutes, some of that will be off the bench and in many matches he will be taken off early. Whereas somebody like Alexander-Arnold is likely to play or be benched- allowing your autosubs more chance to come on.

The AutoSub simulation runs MonteCarlo 1000 trials based on the implied play-time probabilities from the input expected minutes. This also simulates the usage of your vice-captain as well as substitutions.

Chips & Timed transfers

There is now the possibility to use chips (which are very simple to use) and timed transfers for future weeks. Note that for a selection to be valid any transfer in GW needs an identical transfer out GW. Also it should be noted that transfer hits are already incorporated into the forecasts.

The cell colouring per GW forecast (if you are using a laptop/desktop) provides additional information:

  • Gold: This is the algorithms selected captain
  • Light Blue/Grey:
    This is the algorithms selected vice captain
  • Blue: This player is selected as a starter
  • Red: This player is benched
  • Black this player is not in the squad
In this example Quaner is being sold and replaced by Aubameyang in GW28
In this example the Free Hit chip has been played in GW30- Patricio and Robertson have been included in the Free Hit Selection but Shaw has been left out

Conclusion:

The Team Planner tool has become one of the most powerful projection tools in FPL and a great amount of credit for that should go towards the users who have been providing vital feedback.

There is more to come hopefully within the next month as there are plans to merge the tool with the ‘Player Database‘ and also allow the odds forecasts be hedged towards xG performance as an option.